Путины дэглэмийн эсрэг хуйвалдаан эхэлсэн

Путины эсрэг хуйвалдаан эхэлсэн "Форбес” сэтгүүл өнгөрсөн долоо хоногийн Баасан /2015.08.21/ гаригийн дугаартаа бичжээ.

 

Хэдийгээр нэр хүнд нь хэзээ байгаагүйгээр өндөр хэвээр байгаа ч Путины эсрэг хуйвалдаан бүрэлдэж байна гэдгийг Кремлийг судлаачид үзэж байгаа юм байна. Кофений шаараар мэргэлэхэд "Улс төрийн товчоо-2” гэж нэрлэж байгаа Кремлийн элитүүд бүх зүйлийг улам муутгахаас өмнө Путиныг зайлуулах уу үгүй юу гэдгийг шийдэх аж. "Коммерсант” сонины таамаглаж байгаагаар тун удахгүй Орост бүх зүйл үндсээрээ өөрчлөгдөнө, тийм учраас гэр бүлээ аваад хэдэн сар эх орноосоо явахыг зөвлөсөн байна.

Өдөр ирэх тусам Путины хийсэн алдаануудын хор уршиг мэдэгдэж байна хэмээн "Форбес” бичжээ. Оросыг цөөхөн хэдэн удирдагчид үндэстнийхээ баялгийг цөлмөсөн улс болсон гэдгийг одоо хүн бүр мэдэж байна. Түүнээс гадна Орос орон олон улсын дэг журмыг зөрчдөг, албан ёсоор худал хэлдэг, олон улсын шүүхүүдийн өмнө их хэмжээний торгуультай улс болоод байгаа билээ. Путины толгойлсон Кремлийн бодлого дэлхийд түгшүүр төрүүлэхүйц хэмжээнд очоод байна.

Путины эдийн засгийн бодлого бүрэн дампуурсан. Хэдийгээр эдийн засгаа төрөлжүүлнэ хэмээн амалж байгаа ч Оросын эдийн засаг түүхий эдэд тулгуурласан хэвээр, газрын тосны зах зээлийн үнээс хамааралтай хэвээр байна. Газрын тосны үнийн уналт, Орост тавьсан эдийн засгийн хоригоос шалтгаалан Оросын эдийн засаг зургаа дахь улиралдаа хямралын байдалд байна. Гэхдээ эдийн засаг нь хасах руу ороогүй бага зэргийн өсөлт байгааг хэлэх хэрэгтэй. Хүн амын амьжиргаа улам доройтсоор. Нэн ялангуяа хөрөнгө оруулалтын орчин хумигдсан нь Оросын эдийн засгийг улам боомилж байна. Энэ үед Путины тойрон хүрээлэгчид л бүрэн бүтэн, хохиролгүй үлдэж чадсан. Удахгүй Оросын нөөц шавхагдана. Хар өдөр ойртож байгааг хүмүүс мэдэрч эхэлсэн, Путины үгэнд ч итгэхээ больж эхэлсэн.

Энэ бүхний эцэст орсууд юу олж авсан бэ? Тэд Крымийг авсан, гэхдээ оросуудын дийлэнхийн үзэж байгаагаар Крым хэзээд Оросынх байсан. Крымийг буцаан авах Путины төлөвлөгөө нь агуу Зөвлөлт орон задарсанд харамсч явдаг хүмүүст их таалагдсан. Олонх орос иргэн Барууныхан Оросын их баялгийг цөлмөх гэж байна, тэд бидэн рүү довтлох гэж байна, үүний эхний оролдлого нь Украин юм гэсэн Путины суртал ухуулгад итгэсэн. Гэтэл одоо оросууд Украинд амь үрэгдсэн хайртаа хүмүүсээ чимээгүйхэн хөдөөлүүлж байна.

Оросын иргэдээс ялгаатай нь "Улс төрийн товчоо-2” улс орных нь эдийн засаг ямар байдалд байгааг ойлгож байгаа. Оросын эдийн засагчид ид шидтэнүүд биш гэдгийг ч ойлгож байгаа. Аль Крымийн хэрэг явдлаас өмнө Оросын эдийн засаг зогсонги байдалд орсон. Газрын тосны үнэ өсвөл эдийн засаг сайжирч магадгүй ч хэзээ үнэ өсөхийг одоогоор хэлэхэд бэрх. Өрөнд баригдсан Оросын компаниуд зээл авч чадахгүй байна, хятадууд туслахыг хүсэхгүй, чадах ч үгүй. Хүнсний бүтээгдэхүүний импортыг хориглосноор Оросын инфляц 15 хувьд хүрээд байна. Жил болгон хийдэг телевизийн ээлжит ярилцлагын үеэр Путин "бүх зүйл хяналтад байгаа” хэмээн мэдэгдсэн ч бодит байдал өөр.

Крымийг бүүн дуу гаргалгүйгээр өөртөө нэгтгэсэн нь Оросыг хэдэн тэрбум ам.долларын өрөнд оруулсанаас өөр зүйл авчраагүй, ер нь Путины гадаад бодлогод таашаагаад байх зүйл байхгүй гэдгийг "Улс төрийн товчоо-2” мэдэж байгаа. Крым одоо хээл хахуулийн хойг болон хувирч байгаа. Хэдийгээр барууны тусламж украинд нэг их нэмэр болохгүй байгаа ч ямар ч гэсэн Баруун Украиныг хаясангүй. Цаашид ч тусалсаар байх болно. Путины эхлүүлсэн дайн эцэс сүүлдээ Оросыг хэдэн үеэрээ үзэн ядах нэгдмэл Украиныг бий болгож магадгүй.

Украины зүүн хэсэг дэх дайн нь тэндэх Оросыг баримлагчдын салан тусгаарлах үзлийг дэврээснээс биш тэднээр дамжуулан Украины дотоод хэрэгт хөндлөнгөөс оролцох гэсэн Кремлийн зорилго биелсэнгүй. Салан тусгаарлагчдыг буу зэвсгээр хангаснаараа Кремль өөрийн хилийн ойролцоо хүчирхэг армийг бий болголоо. Минскийн хоёр дахь хэлэлцээрийн дараа бий болсон намжмал байдлыг ашиглан украинчууд өөрийн армийг бэхжүүлж чадсан, одоо Оросын талыг баримтлагчид Украины хүчийг дийлэх боломжгүй болсон.

Тиймээс "Улс төрийн товчоо-2” Путины дараагийн алхам юу вэ, бид түүнтэй хамт байх уу гэдэг асуултыг тавихад хүрээд байна.

Ямар ч алхам хийсэн, Путины дараагийн хувилбарыг сайн гэж хэлэхэд төвөгтэй. Хэрвээ тэр Оросын талыг баримтлагчдыг дэмжихээ больж, зэвсэг техникээ буцаан татах аваас Украин Донбасст хяналтаа тогтоож Путин төдийгүй "Улс төрийн товчоо 2.0” бүтэлгүйтсэнээ нотолно. Хэрвээ Путин мариуполь хүртэл шинэ давшилт хийж, эсвэл Крым хүртэлх хуурай замыг эзлэх аваас Баруун хоригоо улам чангатгаж, сульдсан эдийн засгийг улам сульдааж, "Улс төрийн товчоо 2.0”-ын гишүүдийн актив царцана. Магадгүй энэ олон улсын төлбөр тооцооны SWIFT сүлжээнээс Оросыг бүрмөсөн гаргаж, улмаар санхүүгийн шилжүүлгүүд зогсоно. Тэгвэл Путины дэглэмийн ачаар хөлжигсөд дампуурч, хөрөнгөө алдана.

Олон хүн Путины дэглэмийн мөхөл ойртсон гэж таамаглаж байна, гагцхүү яаж вэ гэдэг тодорхой бус. Сонгуулиар гарч ирсэн Ерөнхийоөгчийн хувьд тэр эсвэл өөрөө суудлаасаа татгалзах, эсвэл Путин гэдэг хүн оршин тогтнохоо болих гэсэн хувилбар байж болно. Путины ойрын хүрээллийн хүмүүсийн эсрэг довтолгоо эхэлсэн нь Путины эсрэг хуйвалдаан эхэлсэн гэж таамаглахад хүргэж байна.

Юун түрүүн, Путины хэвлэлийн төлөөлөгч Дмитрий Песковыг чөлөөт бичигч, блогч Алексей Навальный долоо хоногийн 500 мянган ам.долларын үнэтэй тансаг завь хөлсөлсөнийг илчиллээ. Хэдийгээр Песков энэ мэдээллийг няцаасан ч нийгмийн сүлжээгээр тарсан зураг үнэн болохыг баталсан. Энэ зургийг Оросын тэргүүлэх цахим хэвлэлүүд, тэр дундааРБК болон Правда.Ру нийтэлсэн. Мөн "Ведомости” сонин Песковын бугуйн цаг 620 мянган ам.долларын үнэтэйг мэдээлээд "ийм цагийг төрийн албан хаагчийн цалингаар худалдан авах боломжгүй” хэмээн бичсэн.

Мөн Путины ойрын хүн болох Владимир Якунин өнгөрсөн долоо хоногт Оросын төмөр замын монопол РЖД-гийн захирлын суудлаа өгсөн нь анхаарал татаж байна. "Форбес”-ийн Орос дахь хэвлэлийн эх сурвалжаар "хэрвээ Якунин үгцорч байгаа бол сүүлийн хэдэн өдрийн дотор ямар нэг ноцтой зүйл болсон гэсэн үг” хэмээн хэлжээ. Оросын хэвлэлүүдийн бичиж байгаагаар Якунин орлогын эх үүсвэрээ тайлагнахыг хүсээгүй нь гол шалтгаан аж.

 

"Ведомости” сонин Путины багын найз Геннадий Тимченког сүүлийн үед онилоод байна. Барууны хоригт нэр орсон Тимченко Женев нуурын эрэг дээрх тансаг харшдаа очиж чадахгүй болсон учраас ЗХУ-ын удирдагч байсан Никита Хрущевын харшид төвхнөөд байгаа гэнэ. Мөн "Ведомости” сонины мэдээлснээр Тимченко "Роснефть”, "Сургутнефть”, "Транснефть” зэрэг Оросын том компаниудтай ажил хэргийн холбоотойг илчилсэн. Ийм гигантуудтай зөвхөн өндөр албан тушаалын хүмүүс л ажил хэргийн харилцаа тогтоож чадна гэдгийг сонин онцолжээ. Тал хувь нь Тимченкогийн мэдэлд байдаг эрчим хүчнийGunvor групп хориг тавигдахаас өмнө Оросын эдийн засаги маш их үүрэгтэй байсан. Эх сурвалжийн нотлогдоогүй мэдээллээр Gunvor групп Путины хэдэн тэрбум долларын хөрөнгийн эх үүсвэр гэнэ. Ер нь Тимченко болон Gunvor группын мэдээлэл Оросын хэвлэлд бараг гараад байдаггүй.

 


Олны хараанд өртөөд байгаа путины хүрээллийн бас нэг хүн бол Путины хувийн бие хамгаалагчаар ажиллаж байсан, одоо Дотоод хэргийн яамны дотоодын цэргийн удирдагч Виктор Золотов юм. Золотовын эзэмшдэг үл хөдлөх хөрөнгийн урт жагсаалт саяхан хэвлэлд нийтлэгдсэн. "Хэрвээ Путины хувийн бие хамгаалагч байсан хүн өдий хэмжээний хөрөнгөтэй юм бол хамгаалж байсан хүнийх нь хөрөнгийн талаар яриад байх юм алга” хэмээн тэрхүү урт жагсаалтын төгсгөлд дүгнэсэн байжээ. Дотоодын цэрэг гэдэг бол гудамжны бослого, үймээний үед зохицуулах үүрэгтэй маш чухал газар юм.

 

Путины тойрон хүрээлэгчдийг ийнхүү хэвлэлүүд намнаж эхэлсэн нь Путин ойрын хүрээллээ шинэчлэх зорилготой хийж байгаа санаатай үйлдэл гэж тайлбарлах хүмүүс ч бас байна. Гэвч, энэ тийм ч үнэмшилтэй биш. Эдийн засаг нь сүйрч, Украины асуудал гацаанд ороод байгаа энэ үед Путинд ойрын хүрээлэл нь хэзээ хэзээнээс илүү хэрэгтэй байгаа. Тэр тусмаа түүнийг хэрхэн хөлжсөнийг мэдэж байгаа хүрээллийнхэн. Хүнд үед ойрын хүрээллээ хаяна гэдэг бол тухайн удирдагч эрх мэдлээ хадгалж үлдэхэд хэцүү байх юм.

Одоогийн байдлаар Путин гол бай болгосон далд тэмцэл эхэлсэн бөгөөд тактикийн хувьд ойрын хүрээллийг нь зайлуулах операц эхэлсэн гэж "Форбес” үзжээ. Гэхдээ "Улс төрийн товчоо 2.0” дотроос Путинаас дээр хүн олдохгүй гэж зарим хүн үзэж байгаа бол Оросын шинжээч Андрей Пионтковский өөр байр суурьтай байна. Түүний үзэж байгаагаар Оросын элитүүд "Ойрын үед бүх юм шийдэгдэнэ” гэсэн дохиог баруунд өгч байгаа аж.

"Бид өмнө ийм хуурамч дохио авч байсан. Магадгүй энэ удаа ч хууртагдаж магадгүй. Гэхдээ энэ удаа Путины дэглэм төгсөх үү үгүй юу гэдгийг харах боломжтой боллоо. Михаил Горбачевийн эсрэг хуйвалдааны ой болох наймдугаар сарын 19-нийг Путин Крымд өнгөрүүлсэнийг тэмдэглэх хэрэгтэй. Крыи рүү тэрбээр Засгийн газрынхаа дөрвөн итгэлт хүнийг авч явсаныг бас анхааралдаа авах ёстой. Найзуудаа ойр байлга, дайснаа бүүр ойр байлга гэсэн үгийг санацгаая” хэмээн "Форбес” бичжээ.

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